Deck

Onyx Biotec · ONYX · NSE SME

Onyx Biotec is an Indian SME-listed contract manufacturer of sterile water for injections, dry powder injections and dry syrups, running two WHO-GMP plants in Solan, Himachal Pradesh that supply over 100 pharma brand-owners.

$0.33
Price
$6.0M
Market cap
$7.4M
Revenue (FY26)
65.1%
Promoter holding
Figures converted from INR at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates. Listed Nov-2024 at ~$0.73 per share; peaked ~$1.05 in early 2025; bottomed $0.32 in March 2026 on the H1 FY26 margin shock; now $0.33, about 47% below IPO.
2 · The IPO-year break

FY26 erased the IPO story — operating margin collapsed by two-thirds in the first full year as a listed company.

  • The break. Revenue rose 10.8% to $7.4M in FY26 but operating margin fell from 16.76% (FY25) to 4.89%, with H1 FY26 printing 2.72%. Net income went negative for the first time in five years.
  • Trough or new base. H2 FY26 OPM rebounded to 7.02% — a 430bps sequential improvement, but still less than half of FY25 and 400bps below the historical 11–17% band.
  • What it cost holders. The stock fell from $0.73 IPO to $0.32 by March 2026 (−50%); FII holding dropped from 8.72% to 1.07%; $0.33 today sits within a cent of book value ($0.32).
The IPO-window 16.8% OPM was the cycle peak, not a baseline.
3 · Five years of earnings that never became cash

Cumulative net income of $1.6M produced $0.4M of operating cash and burned $3.8M of free cash flow.

29%
5-yr CFO / Net Income FY22–FY26 cumulative
−$3.8M
5-yr cumulative FCF vs $6.0M market cap
144 days
Debtor days FY26 up from 47 in FY23
−$160K
FY26 CFO first negative year

Onyx finances roughly five months of revenue for its customers — Sun Pharma, Mankind, Dr Reddy's, Aristo, Macleods — who run captive injectable lines and use Onyx for peak load. The IPO repaired the balance sheet (gross debt $3.7M → $1.5M); the operating engine never started converting paper profits into bank-account cash. At the FY26 burn rate the post-IPO cushion is consumed inside 24 months, forcing a choice between re-levering, dilution at sub-book, or further working-capital strain.

4 · Is 1.05× book a floor or a fiction?

Both bulls and bears anchor on $0.32 book — yet the receivable line inside that book has never been audited at ageing detail.

  • What the market sees. Market cap $6.0M against $5.9M equity, $4.2M net fixed assets and $5.6M other current assets. Even the bear target ($0.21) takes only a 15% haircut to the receivable book; the floor frame is shared.
  • What the cash flow says. Other current assets are 55% of total assets, anchored on a 144-day debtor book that tripled since FY23. A 15–25% real-cash haircut would imply adjusted book closer to $0.23–0.26 than $0.32.
  • When it tests. The FY26 Annual Report (~September 2026) discloses receivables ageing at full granularity for the first time. A new provision-for-doubtful-debts line would test the asset floor before the H1 FY27 margin print arrives.
The market is paying 1.05× of a number that hasn't been stress-tested yet.
5 · Governance scaffolding around the IPO

The IPO-era setup carries the markings that turn forensic flags from cosmetic to credible.

  • The auditor and the board. Statutory auditor R C A & Co LLP appointed under a 'casual vacancy' EGM in May 2024, six months pre-IPO; all three independent directors appointed in a single tranche in July 2024, three months pre-listing, with no prior board service.
  • The committee design. Harsh Mahajan sits on the audit committee while simultaneously serving as CEO, CFO and Whole-Time Director — the executive being overseen sits on the body that oversees the audit.
  • The IPO-year flatterers. All four executive directors took identical 100% pay raises (median staff +23%); other income jumped 9× to $140K, contributing ~16% of pre-tax profit; reported PAT grew 36% while debtor days stretched from 104 to 119.
  • The offset. Promoter holding has printed exactly 65.10% across all four post-IPO quarters with zero pledges, through a 47.5% drawdown — the most positive single signal in the file.
None of this is wrongdoing. Together it raises the burden of proof management owes the market — and FY26 has not yet cleared that bar.
6 · Bull & Bear

Lean watchlist — the bear carries the structural weight; the bull has one dated test in November 2026.

  • For. Promoter holding flat at 65.10% across all four post-IPO quarters through a 47.5% drawdown; zero pledges. The people with the most to lose did not flinch.
  • For. H2 FY26 OPM at 7.02% versus H1 FY26 at 2.72% is a real sequential turn on a fixed-cost factory; one more half above 10% would meaningfully test the permanent-reset frame.
  • Against. Five-year cumulative FCF is −$3.8M against a $6.0M market cap; FY26 ROCE of 1.14% sits versus peer median 15% and well below a 12–14% cost of capital.
  • Against. The 10-year compounder case requires an EU-GMP or USFDA dossier at Unit II that has not been announced; the IPO's own-brand LVP capex ($710K) has gone silent within six months of listing while Innova Captab's EU-GMP Kathua block (23× Onyx scale, 30 km away) absorbs the regulated-grade displaced pool.
My view — watchlist, not own. The H1 FY27 print resolves three of the four variables that matter; until then there is no edge to be long, and NSE SME liquidity precludes size on the short side.

Watchlist to re-rate: H1 FY27 operating margin (≥10% leans long, ≤7% confirms reset); debtor days back inside 130 versus stretching past 150; the FY26 Annual Report receivables ageing schedule due September 2026; any NSE announcement of an EU-GMP or USFDA dossier filing at Unit II.